In an exercise of retrospective analysis, we are inaugurating this section to evaluate the accuracy of some of our 2023 predictions and explore the outcomes. Look back at the Municipal Forecast 2023! 

A role for local and regional governments in effective multilateralism
On page 19, we suggested monitoring the High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism report to observe how they address the recognition of local and regional governments within a more effective multilateral system. The report, published in April 2023, recommended assigning a formal and permanent status to local and regional governments in multilateralism, distinct from civil society and non-governmental organisations. 

Record of female mayors in Norway not achieved
On page 31, we speculated whether the local elections in Norway would increase the number of female mayors, building upon the unprecedented 2019 record where over a third of elected mayors were women. Unfortunately, preliminary news in July 2023 indicated a setback as the proportion of women on candidate lists dropped, with men dominating the top positions. Only 42 per cent of candidates were women. However, despite the challenges, there was a marginal improvement in the final, with 40.6 per cent of elected officials being women in 2023, compared to 40.5 per cent in 2019. The record was not achieved for female mayors, with 36.7 per cent in 2019 versus 35.4 per cent in 2023. Notably, the Labour Party faced challenges, losing majority votes to the Conservative Party for the first time since 1924.

Light rail milestones in Honolulu and Lagos
Our coverage on page 49 spotlighted the anticipated inauguration of new metro systems, including the light rail services in Honolulu (United States) and Lagos (Nigeria). The first segment of the Honolulu Skyline Rail, covering 10.75 miles, opened on June 30, 2023, connecting East Kapolei to Aloha Stadium with nine stations. Although the project, initiated in 2011, is set to be completed in 2031, this initial phase represents a significant step forward. Meanwhile, Lagos celebrated the commencement of its Blue Line light rail service, built by a Chinese company, in September 2023. The 13 km-long first phase, with five stations, significantly reduced travel time from two hours to 15 minutes. Lagos also has plans for a 27 km Red Line with 13 stations. Thessaloniki’s light rail project is slated for completion in the second half of 2024.

World Expo 2030 in Riyadh
On page 72, we covered the bidding process for World Expo 2030, highlighting Odesa’s unique proposal amidst the challenges of the Russian invasion. However, in June 2023, the General Assembly of the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) excluded Odesa from the final consideration. The remaining contenders, Busan (Republic of Korea), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), and Rome (Italy), faced a decisive vote. In a surprising turn of events, marked by a notable absence of competition that rendered a second round unnecessary, Saudi Arabia secured an outright victory with 119 votes, meeting the two-thirds majority requirement. Busan secured 29 votes, while Rome received a modest 17. The selected theme for World Expo 2030 in Riyadh is “The Era of Change: Together for a Foresighted Tomorrow.”